By Kim Hyun-binAs the U.S. presidential election nears, speculation is rising about the possibility of North Korea staging major provocations to influence the outcome.
Analysts are examining whether Pyongyang might act in a way that could indirectly benefit former U.S. President Donald Trump's campaign, though opinions on the likelihood and effectiveness of such a strategy vary.
"There's a chance North Korea could try to exploit the U.S. election to its advantage," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University. "If Kim Jong-un really wants Trump back in the White House, he might calculate that a well-timed provocation could weaken the Biden administration, making Trump's re-election more likely."
Trump's presidency saw a significant shift in U.S.-North Korea relations, marked by direct diplomacy with Kim Jong-un. Some experts believe Pyongyang might view Trump as a more favorable candidate for its interests.
"From North Korea's perspective, Trump might offer a better chance to be recognized as a de facto nuclear state," Park said. "He could be more open to a deal where North Korea declares a moratorium on certain activities in exchange for partial sanctions relief."
Some experts speculate North Korea might stage a military provocation as early as October, aiming to depict the Biden administration's North Korea policy as ineffective and thus bolster Trump's position in the upcoming election.
"If Kim Jong-un believes he can benefit from Trump's victory, we might see pressure from North Korea," Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said during an Aug. 14 discussion with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Klingner suggested a significant provocation could include a nuclear test or the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile over Japan, intended to send a message that only Trump can resolve the dangerous situation with North Korea.
Kim Jong-un, who engaged in summits with Trump during his presidency, has maintained a personal relationship with Trump through ongoing correspondence, even after the collapse of the Hanoi summit in February 2019. Trump has frequently mentioned Kim in recent campaign rallies, signaling his intent to improve relations with North Korea if reelected.
Rodong Sinmun publishes a photo of the first test launch of the new medium-to-long-range solid-fuel ballistic missile, the Hwasong-16 variant, Aug. 2. Newsis
South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik echoed concerns about potential North Korean provocations around the U.S. election.
In an interview last month, Shin expressed concerns that North Korea might conduct a nuclear test, suggesting such a decision could be timed to coincide with the U.S. election to enhance North Korea's negotiating leverage.
Both South Korean and U.S. governments have voiced concerns that North Korea may have completed preparations for a seventh nuclear test, which could be initiated at any time.
President Yoon Suk Yeol said the North Korean regime is "the most irrational group on Earth, capable of provoking at any moment" and emphasized that "only our military's strong security posture can prevent their misjudgments."
Yoon visited the Ground Operations Command to observe the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises on Wednesday. He is the first commander-in-chief of the Republic of Korea Armed Forces to visit the Ground Operations Command, which was established in 2019 by merging the 1st and 3rd Army Corps.
"All service members must be armed with the conviction to protect our people's lives, safety and the system of liberal democracy," Yoon said. "We must make it clear to the North Korean regime, which dreams of unification under communist rule and is always looking for opportunities to target South Korea, that any act of aggression will mean the end of their regime."
However, some question whether North Korea will proceed with a major provocation like a nuclear test or long-range missile launch.
Several analysts highlight factors that could deter Pyongyang from taking such drastic action despite its history of defying international pressure.
One critical factor is the influence of China, North Korea's primary ally and economic lifeline. Observers believe Beijing has been quietly encouraging Pyongyang to avoid actions that could further destabilize the region, especially given the fragile state of U.S.-China relations.
According to experts, since late last year, U.S.-China relations have been strained, and a North Korean nuclear test could heighten tensions and provoke increased criticism of China from the United States.
North Korea's internal situation also presents substantial challenges. The country is facing severe economic difficulties due to international sanctions and the prolonged impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Analysts suggest that a major provocation might not only lead to international condemnation but also spark questions among the North Korean populace about the regime's priorities.